The UN is to begin the development of an earthquake early warning system in the Indian Ocean, with the agreement of countries hit by the tsunami disaster and nations that have donated to relief and recovery.

The Indian Ocean currently has no seismic information system, unlike the Pacific which benefits from an American-run network.

Led initially by the UN's Unesco relief organisation, the work can be started without delay. It is expected that a system could be in place within a year to 18 months.

This will involve data-gathering buoys anchored close to the ocean floor and able to transmit their data to a terrestrial monitoring station. Any warnings would be issued to governments in the region and further afield.

The UN framework was agreed at a conference on disaster prevention in Kobe, Japan. It was acknowledged that tens of thousands of lives could have been saved if such a system had been in place before 26 December.

It was recognised also that a new system must ensure any warnings are transferred not just to government departments but all the way to the coastal communities, however remote, which would be threatened by another tsunami.

It is not yet clear whether the system will involve one main monitoring and communications centre, or a more decentralised arrangement. Following the Kobe meeting, ministers from about 50 countries met in Phuket, Thailand, to discuss design but could not agree on where a single, all-responsible centre might be placed.

Keen for a result, delegates agreed - with the support of the UN's special envoy - on a decentralised system spreading responsibilities. But this would need to be carefully integrated if operational mistakes are to be avoided.

Some delegates argued that a number of regional centres with overlapping responsibilities would be wisest. If one centre experienced problems, others could offer alternative lines of communication.

By the end of January, Thailand was reported to have pledged $10 million towards a system. Donations from other countries were reported to have totalled at least $8 million.

Technology is reported to have been offered by scientific bodies in the US, Germany and Australia. And, while the system is being constructed, Japan has reportedly offered to provide what service it can using existing sensors.

Japan's Earth Simulator computer uses underwater sensors and seismic reception stations to detect oceanic earthquakes. The computer is being developed also to predict extreme weather and other changes caused by climatic change.

The UK Government is reported to be investing £1.4 million in the atmospheric research capability, and to be sending experts from the Met Office and Reading's Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling to work with Japanese scientists on the project.

Photo: Andrea Muller

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